With retail sales rising and retailers rushing to bring merchandise into the country ahead of proposed new tariffs on products from China, imports at container ports heavily used by the nation’s retailers are setting new highs this summer.
But the analysts who prepare the monthly Global Port Tracker report warn a trade war could result in a downturn in traffic in 2019.
With retail sales rising and retailers rushing to bring merchandise into the country ahead of proposed new tariffs on products from China, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates say “imports at the nation’s major retail container ports have set two new records this summer and are expected to set another this month.”
In June, the 13 ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.85 million TEUs, 7.8 percent more than in June 2017. In July they are estimated to have handled 1.88 million TEUs, up 4.4 percent year-over-year, and in August are forecast to 1.91 million TEU, up 4.4 percent from August 2017. While subject to revision, the July and August numbers are also expected to be records.
“Tariffs on most consumer products have yet to take effect, but retailers appear to be getting prepared before that can happen,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “We’re seeing new record levels every month this summer. Much of that is to meet consumer demand as tax reform and a thriving economy drive retail sales, but part of it seems to be concern over what’s to come. The good news for consumers is that avoiding tariffs holds off price increases that will inevitably come if the reckless and misguided trade war is allowed to continue.”
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said, “Global Port Tracker has only marginally downgraded imports for 2018, but we expect to see a larger downturn going into 2019 resulting from the trade war as well as an anticipated slowing of the economy.”
NRF said, “While cargo numbers do not correlate directly with sales, the record imports mirror strong results seen by retailers this spring and summer that are expected to continue through the remainder of the year. Retail sales as calculated by NRF — excluding automobiles, restaurants and gasoline stations — were up 4.2 percent year-over-year in June and up 4.4 percent on a three-month moving average. NRF is forecasting that total 2018 sales will be up between 3.8 percent and 4.4 percent over 2017.
The ports with traffic tabulated in the report are Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville and Houston.